The cryptocurrency market is still waiting for mainstream tools to quit out their flats while some altcoins show significant growth, which can be described as the ‘altcoin season’, 8848 Invest’s analyst Mark Sorokin assured.
Last week the cryptocurrency market situation kept stable, without significant changes. BTC keeps current flat dynamics, the most of altcoins are keep it also.
‘The mainstream trading tools’ higher timeframes, weekly and monthly ones, in particular, indicate the continuation of the formation of large accumulations. Thus, the market is still waiting for the completion of the volume accumulation and the impulse quit out of these flats with long-range consolidation and further joining the movement in one of directions,’ the expert notes.
The market is still waiting for mainstream tools to quit out flats and accumulation zones with further fixing beyond their borders.
‘You shouldn’t also forget about the ‘error zone’ at the flat areas, where the large number of market participants’ stop-losses can be found. To quit out the flat directly the coin price should overcome this area without stopping most of the participants who should save their open interest,’ Mark Sorokin notes.
Market sentiment keeps positive, but it’s difficult to understand who the general ‘game’ is against.
‘At the same time, some altcoins show additional activity caused by fundamental factors. Some of them showed noticeable growth last week. These are, in particular, Dogecoin, VeChain, and Chainlink. The latter even updated the historical maximum,’ the expert summarizes.
Taking into account the low BTC volatility, which is moving in the tight flat trend for the last several weeks, the current situation can be described as a local ‘altcoin season’. The main liquidity and money are located within the altcoin market now.
According to The Block, in June the cryptocurrency trading volumes and the trading platform web traffic significantly fell. In particular, the number of cryptocurrency exchange visitors fell by 14%, reaching a 5-month low of 98.1 mn.
The cryptocurrency market continues to show accumulation, BTC is going to upgrade $10.500 and move to $14.000, 8848 Invest’s analyst Mark Sorokin believes.
Last week, the cryptocurrency market situation hasn’t changed dramatically. Generally, the market continues to show accumulation, which is becoming larger. A few days ago, as the BTC price reached the lower flat support level it could endure. There was the trading volumes reaccumulation and now there is a new attempt to go up and get the upper flat border.
‘Locally, it looks like a buy situation so far but within the current flat only, since there is no impulse to go beyond its borders. Thus, it’s premature to talk about who is dominating the market currently and what direction the tool will move from the global medium-term perspective. There is purchase within the flat globally so far,’ the expert notes.
Generally, the market participants can keep these support ranges, which will allow them to get out of this accumulation up. However, while the BTC price is in the previous resistance range the likelihood of further decline and distribution to a local support level in the region of $4.000 increases.
‘There is a ‘game’ between two large accumulations now. The top at the range starting at $14.000 and ending at $20.000, and the bottom one in the region of $3.200–5.000. The BTC rate can reach $14.000 and only after it will fall to the region of $4.000, expanding the large local flat boundaries. Movement in this range will continue and may drag on for a year or more’ Mark Sorokin said.
Generally, the dynamics are quite positive still, apparently, the BTC will be able to update $10.500 and try to continue moving to $14.000. An alternative scenario is fixing the upper accumulation limit, false breaking the level of $10.500, returning to the flat, and falling to the $4.500.
Alternative coins also show positive dynamics. The weekly chart indicates most of them are at the very bottom globally, at the main growth sources, which were designated to accumulate a few years ago.
‘The probability of their upward movement is increasing. I expect most altcoins will show the global upward momentum — they will quit the accumulation ranges upwards and continue their growth,’ the expert notes.
VeChain coin is an example, it shows the quitting out the large accumulation upwards and continuing growth at the weekly chart. The altcoin market also keeps positive dynamics, which means that we should expect the growth of most market tools in the medium term.
The cryptocurrency market keeps a flat trend, but upward momentum is still probable. At the same time, the altcoin market follows the market driver — BTC, 8848 Invest’s analyst Mark Sorokin said.
Over the past few weeks, BTC has continued to shape flat. This is a rather large accumulation quite big volumes are ‘loaded’ there. The market froze in anticipation of exit out of it.
‘The impulse can have any direction, either up or down, depending on against who the market will be led — buyers or sellers. It will be clear after quitting the trading range and the error zone,’ the expert notes.
BTC didn’t keep the upper support level and went down. It will be followed by a downward movement to the lower flat border at $8.000. The market reaction to this movement is important. If there will be a large number of buyers’ stop-losses, using which market participants will get the ability to re-accumulate positions, owing to it the price will return to the flat borders.
Alternative coins also keep the flat trend without significant changes. The major altcoins positions, the ETH and LTC, depend on the BTC price direction, which performs market driver role.
‘Altcoins will move according to the BTC price direction. I am sure there will be no de-correlation. The largest cryptocurrency and altcoins are unlikely to go in different directions. If BTC will fall, the altcoins will follow it, in case it will grow, the market will go upward,’ Mark Sorokin notes.
You should be carefully foreseeing the timing and direction of quitting out of the flat. It will depend on the time when the required liquidity will end and all transactions at this range will be completed. This process may take several months.
According to the Vice-President of the European Commission Valdis Dombrovskis, the EU developing the new cryptocurrency industry regulating rules, which will allow the EU to become one of the digital finance leading regions. The legislation introduction will be phased. EU will introduce cryptocurrency regulation firstly.
The market keeps stability and prepare for a momentum upward movement, the global goal is the level of $14.000 still, 8848 Invest’s analyst Mark Sorokin believes.
Last week, the situation at the cryptocurrency market kept unchanged. BTC and other major trading instruments are at flat trend. It can be noted the market ‘preload’ by buyers. Some trading ranges are held by buyers, they are expected to reach the top.
‘The primary BTC goal is the $14.000 still, we’re waiting for the quit upward. In order not to guess, you need to wait for the actual quit out of flat. Price can go either up or down. It’s the impulse movement that will properly assess the prospects,’ the expert notes.
Generally, BTC keeps positive dynamics. Pressing to the upper flat border, which can be defined as hidden accumulation, BTC shows the prospects of overcoming the upper flat border and further upward movement.
The largest altcoins are also located in fairly wide flats with certain ranges and borders.
‘In general, they are formed at the bottom, so I expect they will go up and continue growing,’ the expert concludes.
Late last week, trader & technical analyst Peter Brandt offered the ‘millennials’ a plan of their financial welfare improving. He advised ‘to keep away’ the Ripple coin, invest 10% of it’s income to BTC, and monthly buy high-quality technology companies ETF. Among other expert’s advices are to purchase real estate and find a reliable additional income source.
The same time, Ripple became another of four dozen members of recently created Open Payments Coalition consortium, which will launch & support the global PayID payment system. Due to the use of universal payment identifier transfer process within will be as simple & fast as ‘sending an email’.
Also last week, head of Galaxy Digital cryptocurrency bank Mike Novogratz said the institutional investors attention to digital assets will push BTC to the growth which is expected in the next 6–24 months. The billionaire is convinced the major players joining the market will launch the industry brand new stage.
During the week, the market situation has been kept stable, but on Sunday BTC resumed its decline to the flat lower border. BTC has returned to support borders, where it can gain additional volume to update the maximum at $10,500, 8848 Invest’s analyst Mark Sorokin believes.
Last week, the situation in the cryptocurrency market hasn’t fundamentally changed. On Sunday evening, the BTC price resumed its decline from the flat upper border to its lower one.
‘It’s worth noting there are ‘protected’ support levels within this accumulation. They will be protected by large market players. It’s what caused the current decline to the lower flat border. I don’t exclude the possibility for the BTC rate to don’t reach the lower flat border this week. The local upward reversal on Monday afternoon has occurred,’ expert notes.
Generally, the cryptocurrency market visually continues to accumulate volume, which will make the BTC price to move between the upper and lower flat borders. The further market growth scenario is still possible, as the BTC has returned to the support borders. Out of there, BTC can gain additional volume to try to finally upgrade the maximum of $10,500.
‘The alternative scenario assumes breaking through the support border and reaching the level of $7,500–8,000, where the BTC price will hang for the accumulation of new trade volumes. The further main ‘work’ will occur within this flat. It’s worth analyzing the forming of large market participants’ positions within this range,’ Mark Sorokin notes.
It’s highly likely at the current support level, BTC will get the necessary volume to go higher and try to update the level of $10,500 with no false breaks. In the way, the buyers’ positions are closed at this level.
The situation is similar for ETH, LTC, and other major altcoins. The prices of most of them ‘fell’ down, ETH reached a potential reversal zone, where the market received additional liquidity and dropped the coin price.
‘ETH now requires a new volume gain. The prices of LTC, NEO, and other major altos also reached local reversal zones and went down to the nearest support levels out of there,’ expert summarized.
According to the dutch trader from Michael van de Poppe, by August ETH will cost $300. Potentially ‘dangerous’ maybe occur the price drop to $ 210–220, however, a bullish scenario with the goal at $250 remains more likely. The closest resistance level is at $280 after there will be no hindrance to movement to $300.
According to the Sino Global Capital company, more than 100,000 retail and institutional investors in China bypass the cryptocurrency trading ban using USDT tokens. Since the beginning of 2020, Tether has issued 5 bn of USDT, its market capitalization has grown to $10 bn. At the same time, stablecoin is very popular in China.
BTC keeps within a large flat, sellers who hoped for the fall continuation didn’t get it. The largest cryptocurrency formed a large accumulation, which will lead to powerful & long-term movement, 8848 Invest’s analyst Mark Sorokin believes.
Last week’s market outer view for BTC didn’t change significantly. The coin price continues to form a large long-term flat at the resistance area. It is worth mention that within this range the support zone formed from which the BTC price rebounded. This is the region of $8,700–8,800. There are unprofitable holders in this area — sellers who hoped for a further fall, but it didn’t happen this week.
‘The BTC price rebounded from this range and returned to local resistance within the flat. Now, this kind of ‘micro flat’ is forming within a large accumulation. Until this sidewall is dissolved, it’s difficult to point the market sentiment direction’, the expert notes.
The market will push out from accumulation exit, which will be a single movement without any false breaks. The BTC price will either break through the top or go down and distribute the volume at $5,500–6 000.
‘Another expected scenario for the market situation development will be the renewal of the level of $10,500, as there are supposedly stop-losses & liquidity, which the market wouldn’t mind to ‘touch’. We are waiting for coming out the current accumulation,’ Mark Sorokin said.
The market keeps a positive trend generally. BTC shows a rather large accumulation, so the upcoming market movement will be strong and quite long. Next, it should analyze the strength and nature of the coming out of this range.
The largest altcoin also maintains a positive trend. ETH unexpectedly come out the flat up, but after a slight impulse the upward movement slowed down.
‘Looking forward to reaching the reversal zone at the $253. I think the scenario of further continued growth realizing now. Soon we should expect a test of the nearest resistance level in the region of $253–260,’ the expert said.
At the same time, LTC volatility decreased to its minimum values. Part of the money left the market. The coin price forms a characteristic wide enough flat. It is expected to coming out and consolidate at this range. LTC’s prospective looks unclear.
“XRP is in a similar situation. It bounced a little and began to form a large flat. We are waiting for the coming out of it. It would be nice for the coin to go higher, but the market has no strength enough for it yet. We will start from further market view. So far, the reversal zone at the $0.2475 seems to be a target goal. The lower support zone limit is $0.1536,’ Mark Sorokin summarizes.
As the market confirmed the upper flat border on the 18th of May, on Monday night the BTC rate continued to decline to the lower one. Under these conditions, the most likely scenario is the continuation of accumulation within the flat movement, 8848 Invest’s analyst Mark Sorokin believes.
Last week, the main scenario for BTC was the flat trend formation with borders at $8 200–10 100. The BTC price of BTC keeps within this accumulation, but last week it wasn’t quite clear this is exactly the flat. Current market observations confirm this.
‘The reason for the Monday’s night BTC decline to $9 000 was the nature of the price movement from the flat’s upper border to the lower one. Reaching the expected upper flat border at $9 900–10 000, the BTC price confirmed it and bounced down. Now BTC continues to decline towards the lower flat range border to the level of $8 000,’ the expert notes.
At the same time, according to him, the main scenario for BTC is to achieve $8 000, preferably with a false border breakthrough, and return to the accumulation range. Further, the price will return to the upward movement to $10 000. The scenario of updating the range of $10 500–14 000 is relevant still. But, since the BTC price is already going to flat, you need to wait for the exit out of this accumulation, consolidation beyond its borders, and only after it will be possible to assess the BTC rate movement prospects.
‘There is the capital flow at the market. Serious money accumulates at the top, indicating the irrelevance of the lower support level. Big players close their longs, the probability of the BTC falling to $5 000 is keeping. The distribution up to$5 500 is becoming increasingly relevant for BTC. This scenario can be called one of the most likely in the medium term,’ Mark Sorokin emphasizes.
The key performance goes inside this accumulation, the flat trend boundaries at $8 200–10 100. While the BTC price keeps within this accumulation, it’s difficult to make further forecasts, since their probability remains 50 to 50. The price can go either up or down. The most probable scenario is the false break of $8 000, return to the flat, and continued accumulation.
‘Another scenario is the volume distribution, fall to $5 500 or even lower, complete momentum distribution decline to $4 000 and moving higher to the level of $14 000 after, for example, a false breaking through of $8 000,’ the expert notes.
The large accumulations formation goes at the alternative coin market. Key altcoins, ETH, and LTC couldn’t overcome the current resistance levels.
‘They make us state the fact of the further formation of the new accumulations and new wide range flat,’ the expert summarizes.
Despite falling to $8 000, growth after halving remains the key scenario for BTC, 8848 Invest’s analyst Mark Sorokin is sure.
Last week, there was a local BTC drop to the main resistance area, forming since February. This is a significant downward movement, the price even got inside this range for a short time. The BTC price was simply sharply thrown back and dropped from $10 000 to $8 000. There is no serious reversal because there was not enough volume to continue the fall.
There are two scenarios seem to be probable right now. The first one is testing the level of $9 600, reassembling liquidity, and resuming the decline, which will result in a traced (for several months) market decline. The second one is a smooth decline to $7 000–7 500, where the market will get long-term volume and further updating the level of $10 500.
‘It’s a tricky situation that the highs couldn’t be updated immediately. It was expected the cryptocurrency will enter the reversal zone and drop only after that. This BTC fall’s prerequisite was the previous volume growth. This ‘spikes’ may indicate the purchase culmination’ the expert notes.
The next goal for BTC is the level of $9 600, which will be achieved immediately, or after a short flat trend. The market won’t either ‘notice’ the point of $9 600 and will go higher, or test it and drop to the level of $7 000–7 500, possibly even lower. This is the main scenario for BTC.
ETH maintains a downward trend, it was coin’s reaction to local resistance in the region of $220, while investors expect growth to $200–250, but the market over gained the volume and the drop has resumed. The potential altcoin’s goal will be the level of $160. A test of this range can be expected in the nearest future.
LTC also experienced a sharp drop, after a substantial week-long liquidity increase. Lately, the fall has resumed, the region of $30–36 is the main support level will be tested shortly. Thereafter a coin can gain the required volume and, redistributing it, test $60 point.
‘Buyers where ‘beat’ some may have executed stop-loss orders, at least for BTC positions. This is indicated by the ‘tails’ on the daily charts. Now market participants are expecting the consequences of halving,’ the expert summarizes.
Last week, the BTC rate rose to $9 500, then the growth slowed down and the new large accumulation formation has begun. The probability of further growth and updating the level of $10 500 remains anyway.
The situation will be resolved this week, on the largest’s cryptocurrency halving eve, 8848 Invest analyst Mark Sorokin says.
According to last week’s results, it can be stated there realized one of the market scenarios we discussed a week ago. In particular, the achievement of the level of $9 500, growth slowdown, and the new large accumulation formation in this zone. The market ‘hovered back’ in liquidity, the sellers’ stop-losses has executed most likely.
‘The big surge can be seen on the vertical volume chart, this is the purchase culmination. I would also like to note that the current formation, drawn on the hourly chart, contains locked buyers’ volumes, which indicates the market will most likely try to distribute the volume to at least $7 500, or even slightly lower, in the zone where the previous growth source was located’, the expert said.
This week the closure of the long position, fully or partly, should be expected. In a case of the complete liquidation of positions, the global market reversal and decline to $ 5 000 and lower can be expected. If the institutions will keep the buyer’s volume and push them ‘to hang’ in their positions, the decline will continue to the nearest growth source in the region of $7 000.
‘Further growth and updating of the $10 500? Yes, such a scenario is still present, but the locked customer’s volumes should be realized and their stop-losses should be executed. This will be followed by the volume redistribution and growth to $10 000 and higher will begin’, Mark Sorokin predicts.
However, a fairly large formation is observed on the market now — the large accumulation seen on the hourly chart. Therefore, most likely, the market will distribute volumes up to $7 000–7 500 or slightly lower, followed by an attempt to gain further growth.
‘Now I expect a local drop, but we also need to remember behind the near minimum there may be a quick reaction of buyers’ stop-losses and money redistribution, which will bring the BTC price to the level of $10 500,’ 8848 Invest’s expert notes.
Thus, last week we saw the market reaction to the increased liquidity area, where the previous major participant’s position was formed. There is an intensified struggle between the buyer and seller now.
The alternative coin market is in a similar situation. Except for small discrepancies, the situation is identical overall. For the main coins, it can be also expected a local volume distribution and, accordingly, the market fall resumption.
The digital coin market and the cryptocurrency industry as a whole froze on the eve of the halving, which is less than a week away.
‘Everything will be resolved there. This event will be the main trigger for further market growth or decline. Everything will depend on how this week will end — whether the market will fall or flat movement will remain’, the expert summarizes.
The cryptocurrency market retains the further growth potential, although the upward price momentum is adjusted by the volume addition and price changes. The closest BTC price reference is the level of $9 500 still. The situation at the altcoin market is developing a little faster as the alts have reached their historic lows, 8848 Invest’s analyst Mark Sorokin notes.
The market situation hasn’t globally changed over the past week. During the significant market fall in mid-March, there was a powerful exit of trading volumes. The balance has changed and the market is steadily moving up now. It points to the potential for further growth as the liquidity addition is the nature of this movement.
‘Accordingly, you can see how the price of key cryptocurrency assets is constantly being corrected against previous quotes, thereby allowing large players to pick up an additional purchase volume from lower prices and to budge up all excess ‘travellers’ who take liquidity from ‘smarts’, the expert notes.
The BTC price has come close to the first potential reversal zone at $8 200 now. The lower edge of the reversal zone is the level of $7 750.
‘$7 750–8 200 is a potential reversal zone, but I’d bluntly say, most likely, global reversal can’t be seen in this range. After reaching this level the rollback to the previous support level in the region of $7 000–7 100 will follow,’ Mark Sorokin notes.
Globally, growth is currently seen, the prerequisites for it to end, can be only expected after reaching the level of $9 500–10 500, where the previous resistance was formed, the previous volumes accumulated and their distribution has began. The price is likely to move there.
‘I don’t exclude as I previously noted the possibility of ‘overhigh’, the highs renewal in the region of $10 500, followed by a new balance change and global volume distribution up to the level of $5 500,’ 8848 Invest’s analyst notes.
According to him, the closest reference point is the level of $9 500 still, upon reaching which it’s worthwhile to closely monitor the price change, as an accumulation of stop-losses and breakeven positions of those traders who entered the position ‘correctly’ and keep them in the hope of continuing BTC falls there may be found.
The situation is developing a little faster for altos, as alternative coins previously reached their historical lows. Ethereum (ETH) moves to the area of $250, the first potential stop will be the level of $220–250. This is its potential reversal hone, it can begin to roll back to the nearest support level, seen around $162.
‘The situation is identical for Litecoin (LTC). Both coins look positive, according to LTC it’s likely to reach the level of $55. This is a real scenario in a case if the coin will update the maximum of $48 to move further to the level of $55 and higher,’ the expert notes.
In general, the news background at the cryptocurrency market can be described as negative, but the market is growing despite of it. It can be stated as even more plus than minus for the market. The more negative news, the more retail traders bet ‘against the market’, which allows institutions to gain long positions and move the market up.
‘The ‘trader’s minority’ driving the BTC price now, while the majority are intensely ‘shorting’ their positions. This is also observed in classic markets. For example, the Dow Jones index will also continue to recover, since many have been put in short positions,’ the expert summarizes.