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The market in the volume distribution phase

Last week, BTC lost about 10% of its value, reaching the level of $10 000. The cryptocurrency market is entering the primary volume distribution phase soon we can expect a decline followed by the formation of new accumulation, 8848 Invest’s analyst Mark Sorokin says.

Last week, the cryptocurrency market was unable to support further upward movement. Local volumes distribution has begun, buyers with their orders were locked, and the BTC price began to return to the previous source of growth. The current rate at the level of $ 10 000–10 100 can be a benchmark for the BTC. We can say the market reversal will be formed only due to the new accumulation, which takes time, perhaps even more than one month.

‘If the market plunges into the support level, into its source more deeply, BTC may drop to the level of $9 500. It’s worth considering that buyers who opened their purchases at a coin price of $11 000–12 000 ‘hid’ their stop-loss orders below $8 800, possibly down at $8 000. The first buyers’ stops may be found there, so BTC will distribute volumes and look for new liquidity precisely there,’ the expert notes.

The current market structure may rise into a global flat trend with very wide boundaries. The upper one in the area of $10 000 and the lower one at $4 000. Therefore, we can see another significant fall, after which the lower flat trend border can be confirmed and a new upward movement will begin.

‘It’s more about global perspective, but now it’s clear the further movement requires new liquidity and a new flat. Shortly, BTC will be at current levels without any serious impulse movements,’ Mark Sorokin emphasizes.

The BTC drop last week is a negative event. The market makers’ stop-losses worked, and the new buyers’ liquidity made it possible for large investors to redistribute volumes and begin to decline.

‘However, it’s worth noting the flat trend from which the fall has begun, in my opinion, isn’t large enough, therefore the corrective movement is possible, with further dynamic BTC growth,’ the expert notes.

Chainlink

For this altcoin, a new volume distribution begins. The market has locked buyers, so we should expect a decline to the previous growth source at $8 and below $4.30–4.50. The market can distribute volumes up to this range, then a new flat formation and a new upward movement will follow.

‘It should be noted when the market goes to maintain open interest, so when there’s an impulse no rollbacks, usually it all traded in the opposite direction. There are quit out the flat on keeping the sellers’ open interest for the LINK token now. When the coin reached $20, they safely quit the market, and coin price began to decline, a new distribution began,’ the expert notes.

Polkadot

Last week, the Polkadot altcoin has reached $3.5 bn of market capitalization which allowed it to bypass Bitcoin Cash, Binance Coin, Litecoin, and many others and to take the 7th place in the Coinmarketcap digital currencies ranking. At the same time, given the small age, its movement chart existed quite recently and there’s not enough objective data to evaluate the project.

‘It smears the DOT technical view. There was open interest retention without any serious rollbacks, after which the movement to $15 continued, and the tool was abruptly drained there. A long flat movement will form on it, only after which a significant price change can be expected,’ Mark Sorokin summarizes.
08 September 2020
BTC in the global reversal zone

The crypto market is showing positive dynamics again, the key tools growing and will soon go beyond the accumulation zones upwards, 8848 Invest’s analyst Mark Sorokin says.

Last week, the cryptocurrency market showed a flat movement. Then there was a resumption of positive dynamics at the weekend. Describing the market view as a whole, you can see the continuation of accumulation for most of the tools except for low-liquid altcoins.

‘The flat trend continues for BTC, ETH, XRP, LTC, and other key coins. We can talk about local buying reversal patterns within these accumulations, so I expect a slight correction to supports with the further resumption of growth,’ the expert notes.

From the point of the longer perspective, we should expect the impulse to quit out these accumulations. The BTC price moves between the lower and upper accumulation borders, expanding it. In the future, an impulse quit out is expected.

‘Generally, speaking about the medium-term dynamics, global reversal zones haven’t been reached, so I expect an upward movement. BTC target levels are previous sell-offs areas from where the last major drops began. There is a large number of stop-losses now, these are promising areas to change the balance and start the local distribution again with a decline which will last for several months,’ the expert notes.

Upward movement and reaching these areas should be expected. It’s $14 700–15 200 for BTC, as there is little spillage for this range. It’s $84–85 for LTC. The previous ETH drop started at $800, so the price may rise there.

Fundamental

Over the weekend, the first crypto billionaires, Gemini exchange founders the Winklevoss brothers named the reasons for the future BTC rally to $500,000. They insist gold, dollar, and oil are losing their positions. Traditional protective assets are piling up problems that are set to skyrocket the largest cryptocurrency value.

YEarn Finance project’s DeFi token YFI rose in price to $38,000, while its capitalization exceeded $1 bn. Despite a further correction to $32,700, YFI grew by 644% over the month. The weekly growth was 131%, with 66.6% of a daily one. It allowed the token to surpass the Dash cryptocurrency by market capitalization and get closer to the DeFi industry leader, the AAVE token.

03 September 2020
No prerequisites for a sharp movement

The market keeps positive sentiment and the formation of large accumulations for the major market tools is observed with a possible further quit out to the top. At the same time, BTC is steadily moving towards the level $ 14 700–15 200, 8848Invest’s analyst Mark Sorokin says.

For almost all major market tools demonstrate the formation of large accumulations that last for several weeks. BTC price shows characteristic signs indicating attempts to quit out the flat to upward direction. This, in particular, is the BTC compression to the upper flat border, which is being formed now.

‘Buyers form and protect support levels, thereby preventing the price from returning to this range and leaving an active open interest in supports. A locked volume is formed, thus large buyers keep this range,’ the expert notes.

The market view is quite similar to the previous week in general. BTC is still expected to move up to the level of $14,700–15,200. If there be no large number of stop-losses in this range, the coin price will continue to move to $17 000, where the previous local maximum was formed.

‘We expect further BTC growth now. Most likely it won’t be sharp, and won’t be accompanied by significant impulses, as this movement is the trend and assumes constant rollbacks,’ Mark Sorokin points out.

Altcoins

The situation is quite similar to the altcoin market. ETH is trying to get out of the global flat trend visible on the weekly chart and gain a foothold above its upper border. If he succeeds, the coin will continue to rise to $800–860.

‘LTC forms flat also, but, generally, I expect further growth, as its nearest global reversal zone is above $80. Accordingly, I don’t think the market balance within this range will change significantly. It’s expected to rise above $ 80 with the next resistance range around $130’, — 8848 Invest’s analyst says.

XRP is in flat also, but its further growth is expected. The view is positive even taking into account local declines, which can be counted as a positive sign. This is an opportunity for buyers to get additional liquidity, provoke the new sales openings, which will allow loading into the market additional liquidity, and continue the upward movement.

‘We are waiting for further growth, and the trend structure of the movement of the tools indicates the absence of prerequisites for a sharp movement. Movement with constant pullbacks is more likely to gain additional liquidity from the support level,’ the expert summaries.
25 August 2020
Keeping the goal at $14 700

The market as a whole is in flat, although the upward movement is the priority still, while BTC keeps its goal at $14 700, 8848 Invest’s analyst Mark Sorokin says.

Last week, key digital assets at the cryptocurrency market formed new flat trends. Their formation is already quite obvious, as started a few weeks ago the buyers’
stop-losses knocking out continued with the accumulation of trading volumes.

‘Usually, such keen dump evaluates into a ‘saw’ and volumes start to accumulate again,’ the expert notes.

The new BTC flat borders remain unchanged. The lower one at $10 500–10 600 and the upper one at $12 000–12 200. The market is waiting for an impulse quit out of this accumulation and consolidation higher. While the price is accumulating volumes, the market has no priority — BTC can go both up and down.

‘By indirect evidence, we can conclude there are such priorities still — an upward movement, so soon we can see the BTC will get the range of $14 700–15 100, with further another trading volumes redistribution and new market decline,’ Mark Sorokin believes.

Altcoins

The altcoin market situation is quite similar. ETH holds the best of all, showing noticeable positive dynamics last week. The coin’s weekly chart shows its attempts to quit out the wide flat trend with borders at $300–420. After a sharp dump, the market set the new ETH’s savings borders.

‘LTC which doesn’t go down, but has no aspiration for growth also looks outstanding of altcoins mass. The coin is in the lingering flat now. This is kinda ‘lagging’ token, with intend to get ahead shortly and become one of the few alts which will demonstrate good performance while the market will ‘stagnant’, 8848 Invest’s analyst says.

The situation didn’t change significantly for other coins last week. They are in flat trends mostly. Quit out of them and consolidation at new levels is expected. At the same time, the priority to purchases should be given thus the market is likely to grow.

“Fundamental news has generally less market impact. Priority is given to market sentiment, technical factors, and the liquidity volume currently loaded into the market,’ the expert summarizes.
11 August 2020
True quit out the flat

The BTC price has finally quit out of the protracted flat trend. Technical factors indicate this quit out was true. The altcoin market is also growing steadily, 8848 Invest’s analyst Mark Sorokin believes.

There is a rather interesting situation in the cryptocurrency market. At the moment, we can state the fact of quitting out the large flat trend, which was expected for several months. There was a fixation above it, while the price didn’t test the upper flat trend border, which indicates the situation can be considered as the true quit out the flat movement.

‘The market didn’t allow to quit out participants who ‘were sitting the sale’ and accumulating the liquidity of these purchases, but went up to $12,000. Later buyers were provoked and merged into the potential stop-losses zone, at the new accumulation minimum’, the expert notes.

The new flat trend border — the upper one at $12 000–12 200 and the lower one at $10 500–10 600 has formed. Presumably, it will be an upward quit out, as the price movement structure and patterns indicate the provocation of buyers.

‘It was buyers, retail ones, who hindered the BTC growth, and market makers merged them into the ‘stops’ zone. They get their ‘stops’, so we will see further movement. As I assumed earlier — up to $14 000’, Mark Sorokin notes.

The BTC price began its decline keeping the buyers’ volume, which indicates the temporary nature of this movement, therefore, in any case, preference will be given to purchases. Generally, BTC, as the industry’s driver and benchmark, has more pronounced formations and continues to dominate the market.

Altcoins

The similar situation at the altcoin market is observed, but with a different scale for different tools. In particular, after quitting out its accumulation ETH formed a new flat trend. Potential retail buyers were also merged into the stop-loss zone within it.

‘ETH is moving towards the main source of the previous decline, at the $630, but most likely the market will overhigh this accumulation and the price will be above $840. As for the decline, if the flat will return, the decline to the $150 area is expecting the market’, the expert notes.

XRP is in a similar situation, but in the current condition, it has more positive dynamics and the little larger movement. The coin is moving to $0.39, the previous resistance source, but it will be no open interest there, it will go above $0.51, while the possible decline is still limited by the $0.1660 level.

‘At the same time, last week LTC was slightly slower as for movement and liquidity formation. The coin reached the level $65, a potential reversal zone, where the purchase was fixed by local participants, later the price went down to the stop-loss zone at $51–52. LTC is expected to resume its growth,’ the expert summaries.
07 August 2020
BTC above $10 000

Last week, large and not altcoins began to move, and on Sunday, the market’s benchmark, BTC, broke the $10 000 level once again. It’s a good bid to go up from the current accumulation to the goal at $14 700, 8848 Invest’s analyst Mark Sorokin says.

Globally, the cryptocurrency market continues to accumulate positions — within borders of the current large accumulation at $8 000–10 500. The market shows a fairly positive trend, as the BTC managed to keep the current support level, where there was an accumulation of the local intermediate flat, from which BTC went up at the weekend.

‘Now the market benchmark has a good chance to go above $10 500, overcome the margin of error the sellers’ stop-losses zone and go higher to the region of $14 500–15 000. The market situation view indicates the BTC price may go exactly there,’ the expert notes.

This is one of the possible scenarios, but until the BTC hasn’t left the accumulation, it’s difficult to say precisely extent the coin will continue to grow. At this stage, sellers can join the ‘game’, which, accordingly, will move the asset price down. Then BTC will test the accumulation range from which it recently emerged again.

‘It will be an intermediate accumulation within a large flat. The market expects either a large-scale exit out of it or returns to long-term accumulation’, Mark Sorokin notes.

Altcoins

The alternative coin market is looking considerably better than it was until recently. ETH overcame its previous maximum and went higher, for this coin we should expect the upward dynamics to continue. Looking at the weekly chart, ETH is in large accumulation now.

‘This volume is accumulating at the very bottom, it’s a strong argument for future growth so we should assume the ETH can expect a large-scale upward movement. For other key altcoins including XRP, Bitcoin Cash (BCH), Cardano (ADA), and Bitcoin SV (BSV) a similar situation is observed. They all continue to grow,’ 8848 Invest’s analyst said.

Litecoin (LTC) which continues to accumulate position is out of this list. Recently, altcoin reached the level of $50, the upper accumulation border, where get the seller’s reaction and the price ceased growth in this range. The LTC can likely return to accumulation and continue to accumulate volumes. However, as the coin potential reversal zone is significantly higher, further growth should be also expected.

‘As for low-capitalized altcoins, it’s the situation hasn’t changed globally. Chainlink (LINK), Monero (XMR), VeChain (VET), Cosmos (ATOM), and other tools are at the intermediate accumulation phase after significant growth. They are expected to further quit out the flat trend, which will show the further potential of their movement,’ the expert concludes.
29 July 2020
Has ‘altcoin season’ come?

The long-awaited ‘altcoin season’ seems to be coming, but for some coins only, while the BTC quitting out the prolonged flat isn’t yet to come. The largest cryptocurrency keeps its previous long-term goals, 8848 Invest’s analyst Mark Sorokin insists.

The cryptocurrency market situation doesn’t change in principle, so it’s still premature to confirm the ‘altcoin season’ coming for all coins. The key cryptocurrency, BTC, continues to accumulate volume and its volatility has dropped sharply — almost to zero.

‘The key instruments are hardly moved. The market is looking for additional liquidity, leaving prices within the flat to attract at least someone else who would enter positions to buy or sell additional volumes,’ the expert notes.

At the same time, who exactly accumulates positions and in which direction is unknown. Therefore, it’s better to consider both options with the decline and the increase as probable. In general, BTC is expected to quit the accumulation, preferably with a strong impulse and the brand new trend movement.

‘In case of an increase, we can see the mark of $15 100, in case of going down — distribution to the support source in the region of $4 000,’ Mark Sorokin notes.

Altcoins

Alternative digital coins are in a similar situation. They also have extremely low volatility. Altcoins as a whole also form a flat trend, from which the market expects to exit — preferably with impulse sufficient for the new trend movement and ‘distant’ consolidation.

‘ETH is standing still, LTC is also standing. XRP and all other market tools are similar,’ Mark Sorokin says.

At the same time, we can note a group of low-liquid assets, for example, Chainlink (LINK), which are supported by the favorable news background during the last weeks, which allows them to continue growing.

‘I expect to stop growing for these coins in the near future, partial position fixation, and the beginning of the formation of new intermediate accumulation,’ 8848 Invest’s analyst notes.

The VeChain (VET) coin, which can be called the ‘coin of the week’ is in the same situation. Last week there was a lot of news on it, which allowed it to show impressive growth. Later, it was replaced by the correction, and now we can also expect open positions partial fixation and the beginning of the formation of new intermediate accumulation.

The possible ‘altcoin season’ arrival theme was continued at the weekend after the famous technology entrepreneur Elon Musk twitted that he believed to ‘inevitable’ Dogecoin (DOGE) growth. After Musk’s twit, the DOGE rate increased by 20% within an hour.

‘Precisely because of their limited liquidity low-liquid assets are out of our interest both as investment tools and for short-term operations, since we need certain volumes in order to look for counter deals and hedge positions,’ Mark Sorokin concludes.
27 July 2020
Altcoin market shows significant growth

The cryptocurrency market is still waiting for mainstream tools to quit out their flats while some altcoins show significant growth, which can be described as the ‘altcoin season’, 8848 Invest’s analyst Mark Sorokin assured.

Last week the cryptocurrency market situation kept stable, without significant changes. BTC keeps current flat dynamics, the most of altcoins are keep it also.

‘The mainstream trading tools’ higher timeframes, weekly and monthly ones, in particular, indicate the continuation of the formation of large accumulations. Thus, the market is still waiting for the completion of the volume accumulation and the impulse quit out of these flats with long-range consolidation and further joining the movement in one of directions,’ the expert notes.

The market is still waiting for mainstream tools to quit out flats and accumulation zones with further fixing beyond their borders.

‘You shouldn’t also forget about the ‘error zone’ at the flat areas, where the large number of market participants’ stop-losses can be found. To quit out the flat directly the coin price should overcome this area without stopping most of the participants who should save their open interest,’ Mark Sorokin notes.

Altcoins

Market sentiment keeps positive, but it’s difficult to understand who the general ‘game’ is against.

‘At the same time, some altcoins show additional activity caused by fundamental factors. Some of them showed noticeable growth last week. These are, in particular, Dogecoin, VeChain, and Chainlink. The latter even updated the historical maximum,’ the expert summarizes.

Taking into account the low BTC volatility, which is moving in the tight flat trend for the last several weeks, the current situation can be described as a local ‘altcoin season’. The main liquidity and money are located within the altcoin market now.

Fundamental

According to The Block, in June the cryptocurrency trading volumes and the trading platform web traffic significantly fell. In particular, the number of cryptocurrency exchange visitors fell by 14%, reaching a 5-month low of 98.1 mn.

14 July 2020
BTC is to upgrade $10 500 and hit $14 000

The cryptocurrency market continues to show accumulation, BTC is going to upgrade $10.500 and move to $14.000, 8848 Invest’s analyst Mark Sorokin believes.

Last week, the cryptocurrency market situation hasn’t changed dramatically. Generally, the market continues to show accumulation, which is becoming larger. A few days ago, as the BTC price reached the lower flat support level it could endure. There was the trading volumes reaccumulation and now there is a new attempt to go up and get the upper flat border.

‘Locally, it looks like a buy situation so far but within the current flat only, since there is no impulse to go beyond its borders. Thus, it’s premature to talk about who is dominating the market currently and what direction the tool will move from the global medium-term perspective. There is purchase within the flat globally so far,’ the expert notes.

Generally, the market participants can keep these support ranges, which will allow them to get out of this accumulation up. However, while the BTC price is in the previous resistance range the likelihood of further decline and distribution to a local support level in the region of $4.000 increases.

‘There is a ‘game’ between two large accumulations now. The top at the range starting at $14.000 and ending at $20.000, and the bottom one in the region of $3.200–5.000. The BTC rate can reach $14.000 and only after it will fall to the region of $4.000, expanding the large local flat boundaries. Movement in this range will continue and may drag on for a year or more’ Mark Sorokin said.

Generally, the dynamics are quite positive still, apparently, the BTC will be able to update $10.500 and try to continue moving to $14.000. An alternative scenario is fixing the upper accumulation limit, false breaking the level of $10.500, returning to the flat, and falling to the $4.500.

Altcoins

Alternative coins also show positive dynamics. The weekly chart indicates most of them are at the very bottom globally, at the main growth sources, which were designated to accumulate a few years ago.

‘The probability of their upward movement is increasing. I expect most altcoins will show the global upward momentum — they will quit the accumulation ranges upwards and continue their growth,’ the expert notes.

VeChain coin is an example, it shows the quitting out the large accumulation upwards and continuing growth at the weekly chart. The altcoin market also keeps positive dynamics, which means that we should expect the growth of most market tools in the medium term.

07 July 2020
Accumulation may take several weeks

The cryptocurrency market keeps a flat trend, but upward momentum is still probable. At the same time, the altcoin market follows the market driver — BTC, 8848 Invest’s analyst Mark Sorokin said.

Over the past few weeks, BTC has continued to shape flat. This is a rather large accumulation quite big volumes are ‘loaded’ there. The market froze in anticipation of exit out of it.

‘The impulse can have any direction, either up or down, depending on against who the market will be led — buyers or sellers. It will be clear after quitting the trading range and the error zone,’ the expert notes.

BTC didn’t keep the upper support level and went down. It will be followed by a downward movement to the lower flat border at $8.000. The market reaction to this movement is important. If there will be a large number of buyers’ stop-losses, using which market participants will get the ability to re-accumulate positions, owing to it the price will return to the flat borders.

Altcoins

Alternative coins also keep the flat trend without significant changes. The major altcoins positions, the ETH and LTC, depend on the BTC price direction, which performs market driver role.

‘Altcoins will move according to the BTC price direction. I am sure there will be no de-correlation. The largest cryptocurrency and altcoins are unlikely to go in different directions. If BTC will fall, the altcoins will follow it, in case it will grow, the market will go upward,’ Mark Sorokin notes.

You should be carefully foreseeing the timing and direction of quitting out of the flat. It will depend on the time when the required liquidity will end and all transactions at this range will be completed. This process may take several months.

Fundamental

According to the Vice-President of the European Commission Valdis Dombrovskis, the EU developing the new cryptocurrency industry regulating rules, which will allow the EU to become one of the digital finance leading regions. The legislation introduction will be phased. EU will introduce cryptocurrency regulation firstly.

30 June 2020
The articles above are not intended as professional investment, financial or legal advice and should not be taken as such. These articles are intended strictly for purposes of information. We recommend that you consult with a trained professional before making any decisions which will be suitable for your specific needs.
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