As the market confirmed the upper flat border on the 18th of May, on Monday night the BTC rate continued to decline to the lower one. Under these conditions, the most likely scenario is the continuation of accumulation within the flat movement, 8848 Invest’s analyst Mark Sorokin believes.
Last week, the main scenario for BTC was the flat trend formation with borders at $8 200–10 100. The BTC price of BTC keeps within this accumulation, but last week it wasn’t quite clear this is exactly the flat. Current market observations confirm this.
‘The reason for the Monday’s night BTC decline to $9 000 was the nature of the price movement from the flat’s upper border to the lower one. Reaching the expected upper flat border at $9 900–10 000, the BTC price confirmed it and bounced down. Now BTC continues to decline towards the lower flat range border to the level of $8 000,’ the expert notes.
At the same time, according to him, the main scenario for BTC is to achieve $8 000, preferably with a false border breakthrough, and return to the accumulation range. Further, the price will return to the upward movement to $10 000. The scenario of updating the range of $10 500–14 000 is relevant still. But, since the BTC price is already going to flat, you need to wait for the exit out of this accumulation, consolidation beyond its borders, and only after it will be possible to assess the BTC rate movement prospects.
‘There is the capital flow at the market. Serious money accumulates at the top, indicating the irrelevance of the lower support level. Big players close their longs, the probability of the BTC falling to $5 000 is keeping. The distribution up to$5 500 is becoming increasingly relevant for BTC. This scenario can be called one of the most likely in the medium term,’ Mark Sorokin emphasizes.
The key performance goes inside this accumulation, the flat trend boundaries at $8 200–10 100. While the BTC price keeps within this accumulation, it’s difficult to make further forecasts, since their probability remains 50 to 50. The price can go either up or down. The most probable scenario is the false break of $8 000, return to the flat, and continued accumulation.
‘Another scenario is the volume distribution, fall to $5 500 or even lower, complete momentum distribution decline to $4 000 and moving higher to the level of $14 000 after, for example, a false breaking through of $8 000,’ the expert notes.
The large accumulations formation goes at the alternative coin market. Key altcoins, ETH, and LTC couldn’t overcome the current resistance levels.
‘They make us state the fact of the further formation of the new accumulations and new wide range flat,’ the expert summarizes.
Despite falling to $8 000, growth after halving remains the key scenario for BTC, 8848 Invest’s analyst Mark Sorokin is sure.
Last week, there was a local BTC drop to the main resistance area, forming since February. This is a significant downward movement, the price even got inside this range for a short time. The BTC price was simply sharply thrown back and dropped from $10 000 to $8 000. There is no serious reversal because there was not enough volume to continue the fall.
There are two scenarios seem to be probable right now. The first one is testing the level of $9 600, reassembling liquidity, and resuming the decline, which will result in a traced (for several months) market decline. The second one is a smooth decline to $7 000–7 500, where the market will get long-term volume and further updating the level of $10 500.
‘It’s a tricky situation that the highs couldn’t be updated immediately. It was expected the cryptocurrency will enter the reversal zone and drop only after that. This BTC fall’s prerequisite was the previous volume growth. This ‘spikes’ may indicate the purchase culmination’ the expert notes.
The next goal for BTC is the level of $9 600, which will be achieved immediately, or after a short flat trend. The market won’t either ‘notice’ the point of $9 600 and will go higher, or test it and drop to the level of $7 000–7 500, possibly even lower. This is the main scenario for BTC.
ETH maintains a downward trend, it was coin’s reaction to local resistance in the region of $220, while investors expect growth to $200–250, but the market over gained the volume and the drop has resumed. The potential altcoin’s goal will be the level of $160. A test of this range can be expected in the nearest future.
LTC also experienced a sharp drop, after a substantial week-long liquidity increase. Lately, the fall has resumed, the region of $30–36 is the main support level will be tested shortly. Thereafter a coin can gain the required volume and, redistributing it, test $60 point.
‘Buyers where ‘beat’ some may have executed stop-loss orders, at least for BTC positions. This is indicated by the ‘tails’ on the daily charts. Now market participants are expecting the consequences of halving,’ the expert summarizes.
Last week, the BTC rate rose to $9 500, then the growth slowed down and the new large accumulation formation has begun. The probability of further growth and updating the level of $10 500 remains anyway.
The situation will be resolved this week, on the largest’s cryptocurrency halving eve, 8848 Invest analyst Mark Sorokin says.
According to last week’s results, it can be stated there realized one of the market scenarios we discussed a week ago. In particular, the achievement of the level of $9 500, growth slowdown, and the new large accumulation formation in this zone. The market ‘hovered back’ in liquidity, the sellers’ stop-losses has executed most likely.
‘The big surge can be seen on the vertical volume chart, this is the purchase culmination. I would also like to note that the current formation, drawn on the hourly chart, contains locked buyers’ volumes, which indicates the market will most likely try to distribute the volume to at least $7 500, or even slightly lower, in the zone where the previous growth source was located’, the expert said.
This week the closure of the long position, fully or partly, should be expected. In a case of the complete liquidation of positions, the global market reversal and decline to $ 5 000 and lower can be expected. If the institutions will keep the buyer’s volume and push them ‘to hang’ in their positions, the decline will continue to the nearest growth source in the region of $7 000.
‘Further growth and updating of the $10 500? Yes, such a scenario is still present, but the locked customer’s volumes should be realized and their stop-losses should be executed. This will be followed by the volume redistribution and growth to $10 000 and higher will begin’, Mark Sorokin predicts.
However, a fairly large formation is observed on the market now — the large accumulation seen on the hourly chart. Therefore, most likely, the market will distribute volumes up to $7 000–7 500 or slightly lower, followed by an attempt to gain further growth.
‘Now I expect a local drop, but we also need to remember behind the near minimum there may be a quick reaction of buyers’ stop-losses and money redistribution, which will bring the BTC price to the level of $10 500,’ 8848 Invest’s expert notes.
Thus, last week we saw the market reaction to the increased liquidity area, where the previous major participant’s position was formed. There is an intensified struggle between the buyer and seller now.
The alternative coin market is in a similar situation. Except for small discrepancies, the situation is identical overall. For the main coins, it can be also expected a local volume distribution and, accordingly, the market fall resumption.
The digital coin market and the cryptocurrency industry as a whole froze on the eve of the halving, which is less than a week away.
‘Everything will be resolved there. This event will be the main trigger for further market growth or decline. Everything will depend on how this week will end — whether the market will fall or flat movement will remain’, the expert summarizes.
The cryptocurrency market retains the further growth potential, although the upward price momentum is adjusted by the volume addition and price changes. The closest BTC price reference is the level of $9 500 still. The situation at the altcoin market is developing a little faster as the alts have reached their historic lows, 8848 Invest’s analyst Mark Sorokin notes.
The market situation hasn’t globally changed over the past week. During the significant market fall in mid-March, there was a powerful exit of trading volumes. The balance has changed and the market is steadily moving up now. It points to the potential for further growth as the liquidity addition is the nature of this movement.
‘Accordingly, you can see how the price of key cryptocurrency assets is constantly being corrected against previous quotes, thereby allowing large players to pick up an additional purchase volume from lower prices and to budge up all excess ‘travellers’ who take liquidity from ‘smarts’, the expert notes.
The BTC price has come close to the first potential reversal zone at $8 200 now. The lower edge of the reversal zone is the level of $7 750.
‘$7 750–8 200 is a potential reversal zone, but I’d bluntly say, most likely, global reversal can’t be seen in this range. After reaching this level the rollback to the previous support level in the region of $7 000–7 100 will follow,’ Mark Sorokin notes.
Globally, growth is currently seen, the prerequisites for it to end, can be only expected after reaching the level of $9 500–10 500, where the previous resistance was formed, the previous volumes accumulated and their distribution has began. The price is likely to move there.
‘I don’t exclude as I previously noted the possibility of ‘overhigh’, the highs renewal in the region of $10 500, followed by a new balance change and global volume distribution up to the level of $5 500,’ 8848 Invest’s analyst notes.
According to him, the closest reference point is the level of $9 500 still, upon reaching which it’s worthwhile to closely monitor the price change, as an accumulation of stop-losses and breakeven positions of those traders who entered the position ‘correctly’ and keep them in the hope of continuing BTC falls there may be found.
The situation is developing a little faster for altos, as alternative coins previously reached their historical lows. Ethereum (ETH) moves to the area of $250, the first potential stop will be the level of $220–250. This is its potential reversal hone, it can begin to roll back to the nearest support level, seen around $162.
‘The situation is identical for Litecoin (LTC). Both coins look positive, according to LTC it’s likely to reach the level of $55. This is a real scenario in a case if the coin will update the maximum of $48 to move further to the level of $55 and higher,’ the expert notes.
In general, the news background at the cryptocurrency market can be described as negative, but the market is growing despite of it. It can be stated as even more plus than minus for the market. The more negative news, the more retail traders bet ‘against the market’, which allows institutions to gain long positions and move the market up.
‘The ‘trader’s minority’ driving the BTC price now, while the majority are intensely ‘shorting’ their positions. This is also observed in classic markets. For example, the Dow Jones index will also continue to recover, since many have been put in short positions,’ the expert summarizes.
On Monday, BTC successfully hit the $ 7,000 level for the 2nd time in 3 days. Generally, the market is showing a positive mood, 8848 Invest’s analyst Mark Sorokin assured.
Last week, the BTC price tried to break through the resistance and gain above the mark of $7 000, but the breakout turned to be a false one and the price fell back to the nearest support at $6 600. After a small accumulation on Monday night, the price growth resumed, overcame the level of $7 000 and made another attempt to go higher.
‘The upward movement most likely we will see, as the BTC price has gained volume and is ready to move to the main resistance in the region of $8 000. This is an intermediate stop, most likely the movement to the level of $9 500–10 000 will continue,’ the expert notes.
In general, the situation has not changed dramatically over the past week. The market continues to form tight accumulations located close enough to each other. It’s worth noting last week the price visually demonstrated the mirror levels pattern, which indicates to the further upward movement.
‘BTC has a clearly defined support level with ‘locked’ sellers there, which also indicates an upward movement. Most likely, BTC will go above $8 000 in the near future. It may meet its new resistance zone at the level of $8 500,’ Mark Sorokin is convinced.
According to him, to confirm this assumption, the price has to go up from the current flat in the range of $6 600–7 300. It will be possible to make further forecasts on the coin movement after the price will overcome it.
The situation is similar to altcoins. Alternative coins are also trying to return to the range of previous major accumulation. It’s very important for ETH and LTC to hold above support levels of $156 and $45, respectively, to confirm the bullish mood of market participants.
‘After that, we will see LTC sliding in the region of $63. The main resistance level for ETH is the region of $230. Both coins have good potential, and local reduction and lows updating can begin only after a major increase,’ 8848 Invest’s analyst said.
Most likely it will get it from the upper levels, where those who have led their trades to breakeven and those who are holding the deep minus positions now could remain, the expert summarizes.
A potential increase of market liquidity will contribute to further BTC growth in the region of $8 000, and active sales of digital coins by retail traders will be a good help for a large set of volume by institutional traders and global growth of the entire industry, 8848 Invest’s analyst Mark Sorokin believes.
On Monday night, the BTC price fell, testing the support range of $5 800. Buyers’ reaction indicates a potential increase in liquidity, which will contribute to further growth in the region of $8 000. For this, the market will need to ‘absorb’ the current resistance at $6 600. We should wait and check the market reaction, merging or continue to fall with the renewal of lows in the region of $4 000.
The market is accumulating volume now, the support range where sellers who bet on the fall are locked has been also updated. Most likely, the liquidity increase indicates an upward movement, as the nearest reversal zone after the last strong falling impulse is above $8 000.
‘Apparently, the market should find the seller’s stop-losses in this range. I suppose they can rise higher, as the main source of the falling trend is the range of $9 000–10 000. After that, there will be a volume redistribution and the global turndown with a possible update of the lows,’ the expert notes.
Another possible scenario is an add-on short volumes by the market. The BTC price may turn down, merge the previous support and continue to fall below $3 000, as the sellers’ interest zone is located there.
There is a large number of buyers’ top-losses can be found below. This is the new liquidity which can be base for new volume redistribution’, Mark Sorokin notes.
It is similar to the altcoin market. Two main scenarios are there. An upward movement and test of the main resistance, or, accordingly, a further fall.
LTC has a reversal zone below $20. Shortly, large market participants will get the opportunity to add a new volume and go above the previous maximum in the region $80 and above.
The cryptocurrency market maintains within the downward scenario. The slowdown of downward movement and a new accumulation will be considered as positive market development 8848 Invest’s analyst Mark Sorokin says.
The market drawdown a lot, reaching basic support at the level of $4 400–3 200, where the previous major uptrend began. As the BTC price reached this source of support, the volume was distributed to the upper range limit.
‘The rebound attempt was there, but now there are some indirect signs made clear price rested against the previous resistance level, gained a certain volume and most likely will continue to decline. The immediate goals seem to be the level of $4 000 and lower,’ the expert notes
In his opinion, the cryptocurrency market maintains within the downward scenario. Most likely, the largest cryptocurrency’s price may collapse. The weekly chart shows one support level below the current price range and several resistances above it.
“The biggest accumulations there are on the top. There is more money above than below, and a certain advantage has formed since the price has gone down. Most of this money is on sale and, accordingly, the market is likely to try to overcome the support level of $ 4 400–3 200,’ 8848 Invest’s analyst said.
Market participants will put pressure on the main support that holds the market. Therefore, it’s worthless to expect serious movements higher until at least the formation of new large accumulation. The downward movement is probable.
There is a similar vision for the altcoin market. It’s market movements have a large dynamics in percentage terms.
‘Therefore, continue of decline is expected for ETH, LTC, and XRP. Moreover, the decline of the minimum values is expected for some coins, for example, LTC. This is the level of $25–20. ETH can go below $100 again, XRP — go at $0,0500–0,1000,’ the expert notes.
The situation around the coronavirus certainly affects markets. Pressure from sellers continues. In general, the deteriorating situation and tightening of regulatory measures which will put additional pressure on the market are expected.
‘There is one positive point. American indices, Dow Johnes in particular, have reached their main support range. Correction may begin here and a turn up may be formed,’ the expert summarizes.
Panic at global financial markets wasn’t the prime reason for the sharp cryptocurrency market decline. It was predictable and expected as itself. The large accumulation formation will be presupposition for the reversal. It’s worthless to make the serious forecasts about the fast growth of major cryptocurrencies before, 8848 Invest’s analyst Mark Sorokin is convinced.
There where a negative situation in the cryptocurrency market last week. It was generally predictable. So after reaching the mark of $10,500 during previous weeks, the market began to distribute the accumulated volumes.
‘The started global assets redistribution turned into global accumulation culminated in the downward movement. The level of basic support in the region of $4,000 formed in late 2018 — early 2019 became the goal’, the expert said.
According to him, the sharp rebound followed the decline. Currently, the first thing to expect is a corrective upward movement and the new accumulation formation. That’s one of the probable scenarios.
‘Another possible scenario is the movement beyond the accumulation boundaries to the $3,200, where buyers’ stop-loss orders will be executed and the redistribution of previously accumulated volume will begin. It can be followed by a long, 3–4 months or more, accumulation, after which the movement to the support level at $7,400 can be expected’, 8848 Invest’s analyst is convinced.
The level of $ 7,500 can’t be reached quickly, the continuous volume accumulation is required. There is a reverse reaction now, it can be determined as the future flat boundaries setting perhaps, but it’s an unlikely scenario.
A similar situation is observed in the altcoin market. Most of the coins fell below previous ranges. It’s difficult to determine the support levels where the coin price can hold in the nearest future.
‘Generally, the continued downward movement is expected, with the exception of coins, which declined significantly. Its downward movement can slow down. It’s XRP for example, which price has reached the historic low. At the same time, ETH and LTC have some extra space for downward below $20 and $110–120, respectively,’ Mark Sorokin notes.
While there is the volume distribution, it seems extremely difficult to determine probable scenarios for the market situation. The large accumulation formation will be an indicator of the price is ready to go up. It’s worthless to make serious forecasts about the fast growth of major cryptocurrencies before.
The BTC price will resume its growth to the $9.500 soon. A positive scenario seems more likely. The coronavirus remains the highlight news seriously affected the global financial markets. After the epidemic subsides, we can expect the growth resumption for all major instruments, 8848 Invest analyst Mark Sorokin believes.
About the BTC, there are finished the opening volume distribution phase discussed in previous reviews. At $10,500, a new locked buyer’s volume was formed, the price gets the new support source at $7.700–8.000. Thus, the main cryptocurrency’s price tested the support range and new upward reversal can be potentially expected now.
‘To make it real several conditions must be completed. The volume accumulation that will support this upward movement is required, after which, accordingly, the BTC price will resume its growth to $9,500. It’s what concerns the positive scenario,’ the expert notes.
According to him, a negative scenario is also possible. It’s a dip below $6,000, but it’s quite difficult to predict it with high accuracy. If the fall continues, it will be swift. However, the main option for BTC is testing the support level and gaining the necessary volume. It will be redistributed and the price rate will continue to grow to $9,500.
The situation is very similar to an alternative token market. Its fall appeared to be even deeper than for BTC, but in general, the price reached the main support sources formed at the very bottom which caused the previous growth.
‘The new volume formation here we also expect, the new accumulation and the growth resumption after that. From technical analysis, the rate growth isn’t canceled, we are waiting for the necessary conditions to continue our upward movement,’ 8848 Invest analyst says.
The goals haven’t finalized yet for some alternative coins so locally they can also sag, while the main market will standstill, in the current flat.
No serious news should be noted from fundamental analysis. The coronavirus remains the highlight news that caused the fall of all major global financial markets.
‘It’s the excuse of course only. Financial indices fall has some deeper reasons. Coronavirus influenced the psychology of the main market participants, forcing them to sell their assets in general. The current BTC correction is also connected with it,’ Mark Sorokin emphasizes.
There is only hope for the situation’s early resolution. Italy was actually ‘closed’. Due to the high number of infected and fatal cases, all major sporting events were canceled there and the almost complete isolation mode was initiated.
‘I’m sure the situation will change soon. It can appear the motive to relieve markets. After the epidemic subsides, we can expect the growth resumption for all major instruments,’ the expert summarizes.
After continued growth, the cryptocurrency market is entering a stage of correction, which may appear to be deeper than observers previously expected. At the same time, after reaching lower support levels, the BTC price may return to the range above $10,000, 8848 Invest analyst Mark Sorokin believes.
The market situation has changed. A correction movement has matured for all instruments. The BTC chart, as the primal cryptocurrency market driver and indicator, shows the formation of hidden distribution.
‘There is already a large accumulation and lower highs, which indicates that formed from the above volume is held and not released out from the market. It, in turn, indicates open interest, which may unload much lower,’ the expert notes.
In his opinion, the first reference point for the new BTC rate movement will be the mark of $ 9,100. This is the minimum where may be found stop-loss orders for buyers who are currently holding their positions. Ideally, viewed more globally, this is a mark of $ 7,600.
‘Achieving this level indicates a test of core accumulation and an increase in volumes from this range and a run above $ 10,500, the maximum formed earlier,’ Mark Sorokin says.
The market correction at this stage may be deeper than previously expected. It may be followed by a more serious volume increase.
Most alternative coins show steady flat movement with no priorities. The further movement of their rates and the distribution of accumulated volumes will depend primarily on the movement of the largest crypto, BTC.
Following the Sunday meeting, the finance ministers and the heads of the G20 central banks called for the implementation of crypto regulation standards in the G20 countries in accordance with the FATF recommendations.
According to the new cryptocurrency rating of the China Electronic Information Industry Development (CCID), BTC left out the top 10 of the most influential digital currencies rank. Traditionally, EOS leads the CCID ranking, and the Tron project returned to second place, displacing Ethereum out of there.
In addition, it is expected on April 30, the SEC will make a final decision about the future of the TON project.